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With less than three weeks to go before Oscar night, Brokeback Mountain is still the odds-on favourite to win the best picture Oscar.
According to odds-makers in Las Vegas and online betting firms, the lead for Ang Lee’s gay western which was shot in Alberta has narrowed but is still strong.
John Avello, the director of race and sports operations at the Wynn Las Vegas casino hotel, puts Brokeback Mountain’s odds at 3-5. This means a bet of $5 would yield only $3.
Brokeback Mountain’s nearest rival is Ontario-native Paul Haggis’ Crash which Avello puts at 4-1 odds.
“I think Crash is the only movie that has an outside shot at the best picture Oscar. It’s gaining momentum, but I don’t know if it has enough to overtake Brokeback.”
Sportsbook.com, a Costa Rica-based betting firm that takes online bets, is much more confident of Brokeback’s success come Oscar night.
They have it pegged at 1-10 odds.
The odds of Lee winning this year’s best director Oscar are even stronger with Avello giving him 2-5 and Sportsbook 1-12.
Both companies point out Lee has won every single major award, including the Directors Guild, Screen Actors Guild and the Golden Globe.
Philip Seymour Hoffman’s incarnation of Truman Capote in the best picture nominee Capote makes him the odds-on favourite for best actor with 1-6 odds from both Sportsbook and Avello.
Both agencies peg Heath Ledger, who played Ennis Del Mar in Brokeback as Hoffman’s closest rival.
With 1-3 odds, Reese Witherspoon is favoured to win the best actress statue with Avello giving Felicity Huffman a 9-5 chance of winning best actress for gender-bending role in Transamerica.
Rachel Weisz looks like a given to nab the best supporting Oscar for her performance in The Constant Gardener, but the best supporting actor race is far from a sure bet.
Both Sportsbook and Avello give Paul Giamatti the edge for his performance in Cinderella Man over George Clooney from Syriana. They give Clooney 7-5 odds just below Giamatti’s 6-5.