The Oscar: Martin Scorsese has never wanted it more and deserved it less.

But, according to all the signs, from pundits' predictions to the Directors Guild of America prize, this is the year that one of Hollywood's living-working legends will finally get his own golden guy.

If he loses, though, he will set a new record for most best director nominations -- six -- without a victory.

If he wins, the more likely scenario, Scorsese will be honoured for The Departed, a remake of part of the Hong Kong trilogy Infernal Affairs, co-directed by Andrew Lau and Alan Mak.

While Scorsese crafted a terrific Americanized version of their Asian masterpiece, he took many of his directorial cues from them. That begs the question: Why would Scorsese get an Oscar for this -- the least original and most derivative of all his nominated films?

Call it the Guilt-trip Oscars. Hollywood is famous -- or infamous in some cases such as Elizabeth Taylor and Butterfield 8 -- for righting wrongs of the past by honouring long-time losers for lesser works.

Scorsese's past nominations were for: Raging Bull (1980), The Last Temptation of Christ (1988), GoodFellas (1990s), Gangs of New York (2002) and The Aviator (2004). In addition, he was twice nominated as co-writer of a best adapted screenplay nominee. He lost both of those, too. For Scorsese, the most egregious oversight was losing the 1980 best director prize to first-timer Robert Redford for his admirable but conventional Ordinary People. The staggering Raging Bull clearly deserved better.

So no storyline is more prominent tonight as the Oscars celebrate their 79th birthday. Especially because, regardless of its roots in Asia, Scorsese's crime thriller is also the front-runner in the best picture race.

The thinking is that only Babel could unseat The Departed, just as Crash did upsetting front-runner Brokeback Mountain a year ago. If that were the case, Mexican filmmaker Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu could potentially unseat Scorsese, too. Meanwhile, there is a smaller contingent backing Little Miss Sunshine for best picture, but that is a stretch, as wonderfully entertaining as it is.

In the acting categories, the entire field of nominees would be shocked if Forest Whitaker did not earn the best actor prize for playing despot Idi Amin in The Last King of Scotland, and if Helen Mirren did not rule among best actress candidates for playing a beleaguered Queen Elizabeth II in The Queen. Portraying a real person, dead or alive, seems to be the key.

In support categories, Dreamgirls might mount a sweep, Eddie Murphy for best supporting actor and Jennifer Hudson for best supporting actress. Both are simply sensational for singing and acting and Dreamgirls is about musical performance (three of its leading eight noms are for songs).

That result would also mean the Guilt Trip only goes so far. Peter O'Toole, up for Venus, would lose again in his eighth attempt for a best actor Oscar (he did get an honorary Academy Award in 2003). Astonishingly, O'Toole was first in Oscar play 44 years ago for Lawrence of Arabia (1962).

In addition, if Murphy overcomes the stigma of releasing the hideous fat lady comedy Norbit after getting nominated, Alan Arkin would not benefit from the Guilt Trip. In Arkin's case, he was first nominated 38 years ago for The Russians are Coming, The Russians are Coming (1966).

Like unicorns, Oscars are elusive animals. Even in this most international of all Oscars, most are likely to go to Americans. But there are a clutch of Canadians vying for recognition. The most prominent are two London-born talents: Ryan Gosling is an outsider as best actor for Half Nelson and Paul Haggis has the distinction of being nominated three years in a row for writing a best picture candidate: Million Dollar Baby, Crash and now Letters From Iwo Jima. Haggis, of course, also produced and directed Crash, winner as best picture last year. Haggis took home two Oscars of his own for it, for writing and producing. Also in contention is Toronto's Deepa Mehta, whose exquisite Water represents Canada and is up for best foreign language film. A Norwegian-Canadian co-production, Torill Kove's The Danish Poet, is up for the best animated short (as the 69th Oscar nomination for the NFB).