OTTAWA -- Howard Stern is Dead Man Talking.

Remember where you heard it first.

Yes, as the United States gets ready for the Rumble in the Desert, Part 2, the Canadian Establishment is preparing to throw out an American invader whose bad manners are turning on radio audiences and turning off editorialists and regulators across Great White North.

As near as I can figure from the folks in the know, Bad Howard's end will come in one of two ways. Starting with the most likely scenario, the two Canadian stations who run his syndicated morning show, CHOM-FM and CILQ-FM, will voluntarily announce that they are taking Howard off the air. That's why negotiations to carry Stern on western stations in Edmonton and Vancouver have come to a full, grinding and permanent stop.

No matter what the stated reason, Howard's imminent disappearance (I am told it could happen in as little as two weeks) flows from last week's ruling by the Canadian Broadcast Standard Council. The Council found that the stations breached the provisions of the industry's Code of Ethics thanks to their new kid on the satellite. Stern was found to be abusive, bigoted, sexist, and profane -- the anti-Christ of the broadcast world with the best ratings in the business. Think of it as the triumph of "entertainment" over news and current affairs. You got it Pontiac: A lot of people would rather guffaw than think.

Since his modus operandi is like a film loop in a porno movie (the same triple XXX act repeated over and over again until it achieves perfect meaninglessness), it is certain Stern will continue to violate CBSC standards as long as he's on the air. Why mess with a multi-million dollar gig or the privilege of reaching a few peckerheads and horny cows in Canada, right Howie?

PUERILE OBSCENITY

On the merits of the charges, Stern's actions are indefensible. As quoted in the Council's decision, this is what he said to one female caller during his first week on the air in Canada: "All you want to do is bend over a chair and get a good high, hard one any way you can, you horny cow."

Stern also advised his francophone detractors to "bend over" like the French did for the Germans in World War II. Mix in a little flatulence, a little puerile obscenity (Stern's American audience is restricted to juvenile males who like to take the catalogue to the washroom) and you understand why he doesn't let his own kids listen to the show.

CHUM Ltd., the parent company of CHOM-FM in Montreal, calls Stern's antics misguided humor. Trust me. No one in the regulatory community is laughing. Is it satire? Imputing satire to Howard Stern is like calling Sean Penn sensitive; you have to be a fan. Nor does it matter much that the stations involved run advisories warning of Howard's dawn raid on common decency and the Canadian Way. When all is said and done, they still gave him his seat on the magic carpet of the airwaves, meaning they are the ones we have to thank for his crude jokes and Archie Bunker insights.

While the CBSC has no regulatory power to banish Stern, their decision carries great weight with the people who really count in this tasteless but successful marketing ploy; the broadcasters who used their licences to give Howard a soap box in Canada. Stern may have them over a barrel of money, but regulators have them over the Big Barrel. What is CHUM to do? Ignore the fact that Stern is in contravention of the standards the company itself created for their own industry?

If they were imprudent enough to do that, the game will be taken to the next level: the CRTC. We would then witness a battle to the death between Howard Stern and the people who have the power to cancel licences in the name of regulating Canadian broadcasters.

If the CRTC were to rule that Stern had the right to titillate racists and bigots for a living as a sort of James Keegstra turned to stand-up comedy, the CRTC would have no further reason to exist. There would be nothing left to regulate. Canadian broadcasting would simply become the benefactor or the victim of the blanket constitutional protection of freedom of speech in the United States.

Our broadcast world would become Jerry Springer writ large, a daily mud-wrestling contest between jocks and TV talkers trying to out-shock each other and their audiences for ratings. Who would be the first to have people actually copulate on air, Howard or Jerry? (Personally, I'd lay my bet on Melrose Place.)

But if the standoff ends up being between Howard and the CRTC, get ready for a strategic change in the battle plan. No one at the CRTC is anxious to tussle with Howard on the dangerous ground of free speech.

(Yours truly, for example, champions Howard's right to be a boob and an ignoramus because I don't like the idea of governments defining the single most important freedom in a democratic society. To me, the on-off switch is vastly superior to regulatory fiat as a means of dealing with Howard Stern.)

UNFUNNY RANTS

If it comes to a fight, count on the CRTC to take the battle to the loftier plain of Canadian content. Rather than objecting to the crudity of Stern's unheartfelt and unfunny rants, they will home in on the origin of his broadcast. In other words, if Canadian broadcasters aren't prepared to voluntarily do the right thing, they may face losing their licences for failing to meet Canadian content rules.

How would you like to be the lawyer to argue that Howard Stern safeguards, enriches and strengthens the cultural political, social and economic fibre of Canada, as the Broadcasting Act expects every broadcaster to do? Not even F. Lee Bailey on three martinis and a hit of speed could make that case with a straight face.

If you think Stern has a chance of surviving, consider what happened to XTRA-FM's experiment with Howard Does Mexico. The originating broadcaster pulled Stern off the air after he offended Latin-Americans and Spanish Americans with talk of building a wall around the U.S. to keep out the wetbacks. Backed by groups like ERASE, (End Radio Air Smut Effectively), Al Westcott managed to stop Stern in his tracks, as well as get nearly $2 million in indecency fines mailed to the stations that still carry him in the U.S.

Bad Howard's days are numbered, as much because we are fundamentally different from our American cousins as that Howard is Lenny Bruce without the wit. But don't despair. If you have to assert your membership in the global village, you can always ask for a satellite for Christmas.

In the Bill Gates Age, technology will have the final word.


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