Less than a week away, Hollywood's biggest event is getting ready to roll with first-time host Ellen Degeneres. Who deserves to take home a golden trophy? Well, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will decide that next Sunday.
Voting members must cast their final ballots by this Wednesday with the awards being handed out February 25. But in the meantime, here are my major category picks for this year's Oscars:
Best Original Screenplay
The nominees are: "Babel," "Letters from Iwo Jima," "Little Miss Sunshine," "Pan's Labyrinth," "The Queen"
Who will win: I'm probably the only one in North America who didn't go gaga for "Little Miss Sunshine," but there's no denying Michael Arndt's rookie script won over countless moviegoers last summer. Since the film faces some pretty stiff competition in the major categories, Oscar won't let this runaway sleeper exit the Kodak Theatre empty handed, so my guess is the film picks up this award and then calls it a night.
Who should win: Guillermo Arriaga has shown a knack for scripting intersecting storylines that slice closer to the bone with each new film. After penning "21 Grams" and Tommy Lee Jones' directorial debut, "The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada," his screenplay for 'Babel' solidifies him as one of the most astute cartographers of the human experience.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The nominees are: "Borat," "Children of Men," "The Departed," "Little Children," "Notes on a Scandal"
Who will win: This is close, but I'm giving the nod to Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Peter Baynham and Dan Mazer's for their big-screen incarnation of the popular BBC character "Borat." Miles funnier than Cohen's straight-to-video "Da Ali G Movie," "Borat's" extreme insensitivity meant big laughs for anyone who was ready to have a chuckle at our friends south of the border.
Who should win: After bungling his way through Ridley Scott's "Kingdom of Heaven," William Monahan's adaptation of the Hong Kong crime-classic "Infernal Affairs" notches all the knuckle-grinding excitement of its predecessor, while giving "Departed" stars Leonardo Di Caprio and Matt Damon the meatiest roles of their careers.
Best Cinematography
The nominees are: "The Black Dahlia," "Children of Men," "The Illusionist," "Pan's Labyrinth," "The Prestige"
Who will win: Guillermo del Toro has become one of the most unpredictable filmmakers, trading high-profile comic book adaptations ("Blade," "Hellboy") for the fantastical "Pan's Labyrinth." Frolicking in the same realm as Peter Jackson's "Lord of the Rings" trilogy, del Toro's imaginative tale of a young girl captivated by a fairy tale is brought to life by Guillermo Navarro's splendid photography, issuing visuals that were some of the most arresting ones caught on film last year.
Who should win: Guillermo Navarro
Best Animated Film
The nominees are: Cars, Happy Feet, Monster House
Who will win: The Academy will no doubt figure that "Cars'" huge box-office tally meant it was a good movie and therefore anoint Pixar head honcho John Lasseter with his second (third, if you're counting a Special Achievement Award in 1995) Oscar. Personally, I thought the film was a snore and lacked the snappy dialogue that peppered far superior films from Lasseter's Pixar stable, but with over $240-million in the bank, green is the new gold.
Who should win: "Monster House" was the kind of movie that made me feel nine-years-old all over again. A lot of animated films like talking up to us, but this film's genius came from its ability to reawaken the kid inside. One can only hope that the fourth Indiana Jones does the same.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
The nominees are: Adriana Barraza ("Babel"), Cate Blanchett ("Notes on a Scandal"), Abigail Breslin ("Little Miss Sunshine"), Jennifer Hudson ("Dreamgirls"), Rinko Kikuchi ("Babel")
Who will win: I don't see this going to anyone other than Ms. Hudson. Stealing the show from Beyonce is no small trick, not to mention flipping the bird to Simon Cowell's predictions of failure.
Who should win: When all was said and done, there were a few performances that really stuck out for me last year, one of them being Adriana Barraza's nanny, who misguidedly takes a pair of American children under her supervision to a wedding in Mexico. As the consequences of that decision come crashing down on her in the film's waning moments, Barraza's whole visage crumbles and our hearts, along with it.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
The nominees are: Alan Arkin ("Little Miss Sunshine"), Jackie Earle Hailey ("Little Children"), Djimon Hounsou ("Blood Diamond"), Eddie Murphy ("Dreamgirls"), Mark Whalberg ("The Departed")
Who will win: Eddie Murphy's career has been the equivalent of the Mighty Canadian Minebuster. With plenty of ups ("Beverly Hills Cop") and stomach-churning lows ("The Adventures of Pluto Nash" anyone?), Murphy's touching performance makes one wonder why it has taken him this long to fight his way into the one comedy, one drama territory first mined by Tom Hanks.
Who should win: Eddie Murphy.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
The nominees are: Leonardo Di Caprio ('Blood Diamond"), Ryan Gosling ("Half Nelson"), Peter O'Toole ("Venus"), Will Smith ("The Pursuit of Happyness"), Forrest Whitaker ("The Last King of Scotland")
Who will win: It's likely that I won't be lining up to see Forrest Whitaker's brutal rendering of Idi Amin again anytime soon, but the veteran actor's penchant for likeable characters takes a backseat here. The result? Jaw dropping.
Who should win: I won't be unhappy if any of the other actors take home the prize, but I'm sticking with Whitaker.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
The nominees are: Penelope Cruz ("Volver"), Judi Dench ("Notes on a Scandal"), Helen Mirren ("The Queen"), Meryl Streep ("The Devil Wears Prada"), Kate Winslet ("Little Children")
Who will win: Kate Winslet has a funny bit in HBO's "Extras" where she laments (jokingly) about having not yet won an Oscar. Sadly for her, all signs point to Mirren. She's won just about every award imaginable and the buzz surrounding her portrayal of Queen Elizabeth has been deafening.
Who should win: I was a sucker for Meryl Streep's editor-from-hell character in "The Devil Wears Prada." Maybe it's because of the whole journalism thing, but that's a role I didn't mind watching twice.
Best Director
The nominees are: Clint Eastwood ("Letters from Iwo Jima"), Stephen Frears ("The Queen"), Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu ("Babel"), Paul Greengrass ("United 93"), Martin Scorsese ("The Departed")
Who will win: If your name isn't Martin Scorsese, I vote you get an early head start on one of those swishy Oscar parties. Billed as a rematch from '05 (when Eastwood's "Million Dollar Baby" trounced Scorsese's "Aviator"), the legendary director gets to add Oscar to his mantelpiece by Monday next.
Who should win: Scorsese of course.
Best Picture
The nominees are: "Babel," "The Departed," "Letters from Iwo Jima," "Little Miss Sunshine," "The Queen"
Who will win: I get a sick-to-my-stomach feeling that "Little Miss Sunshine" might steal this award (and I say steal 'cause I'm not even sure why it's nominated in the first place), but I hope common sense prevails. "The Departed" was the only feature in '06 that left me wanting more. With performances this razor sharp, a script that gives Mark Whalberg some of his best lines ever and Scorsese's sweeping camera angles, I peg the flick as this decade's ultimate crime-thriller.
Who should win: Anything other than "The Departed" and my Whirly Pop is going out the window.
The Academy Awards air this Sunday on CTV.
