February 15, 2008

What did you think of the 82nd Academy Awards
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JAM!'s fearless predictions
By -- For JAM! Movies


Blood-soaked Javier Bardem in a scene from the Coen brothers' 'No Country for Old Men.'

Now that the pesky writers' strike no longer threatens to derail my long-standing Oscar tradition - a large layered and a super-sized Coke - there's the business of me trotting out my predictions of can't-miss winners at this weekend's show.

Best Original Screenplay

The nominees are: "Juno," "Lars and the Real Girl," "Michael Clayton," "Ratatouille," "The Savages"

Who will win: When I blogged about "Juno" at last year's film festival, I think 'Whip smart dialogue' is how I described Diablo Cody's bittersweet snapshot of the traumas of teen life. There were also blurbs about the film's clever stroke of product placement (I had never bought Sunny D before I saw this film), and brilliant acting turns by Canada's Ellen Page and Michael Cera. Normally, I don't do comedies, but I couldn't help but be smitten by Page's precocious Juno MacGuff, her father, Mac (played by J.K. Simmons), and Cera's wide-eyed Paulie Bleeker.

Who should win: In a year that was overly bleak at the multiplex it's no contest - "Juno."

Best Adapted Screenplay

The nominees are: "Atonement," "Away from Her," "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly," "No Country for Old Men," "There Will Be Blood"

Who should win: If you've read Cormac McCarthy, then you know his prose is brisk and bitingly crisp. In adapting "No Country for Old Men," Joel and Ethan Coen sharpen the book's most haunting scenes (when Anton Chigurh and Carla Jean meet near the end, for example), while keeping intact the overwhelming dread that looms within.

Who will win: In a year that was unflinchingly cycnical outside the multiplex it's no contest - "No Country for Old Men."

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

The nominees are: "Persepolis," "Ratatouille," "Surf's Up"

Who should win: When was the last time you went to the movies and craved something other than popcorn? After issuing a rare misfire with last year's "Cars," the Pixar folks didn't disappoint with "Ratatouille's" fanciful romp through French cuisine.

Who will win: If you're a budding chef, it made you want to cook. If you can't sit still, it made you want to visit Paris all over again. If you're on a diet, it made you want to forget counting calories and take a bath in a steaming pot of buttered cream. OK, maybe not that. But "Ratatouille" wins this hands down for making me want to do the first two straight away.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

The nominees are: Cate Blanchett in "I'm Not There," Ruby Dee in "American Gangster," Saoirse Ronan in "Atonement," Amy Ryan in "Gone Baby Gone," Tilda Swinton in "Michael Clayton"

Who should win: Though I won't be surprised if this is the year the eightysomethings rule (both Ruby Dee and Hal Holbrook are the elder statesmen in the acting categories) for me, this is a two-way race between Cate Blanchett's 'Blonde on Blonde' Dylan portrait and Tilda Swinton's tough-talking corporate schemer, but I'm giving the edge to Cate. All the actors in Todd Haynes' head-spinning take on the many lives of Bob turn in fine performances, but Blanchett is unrecognizable, and totally watchable, as she envelops herself with the singer's early flirtations with electric guitar.

Who will win: Er, Cate.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

The nominees are: Casey Affleck in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," Javier Bardem in "No Country for Old Men," Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Charlie Wilson's War," Hal Holbrook in "Into the Wild," Tom Wilkinson in "Michael Clayton"

Who should win: I won't vent here about how wrong it is that Josh Brolin was snubbed here (both for his role as a dirty cop in "American Gangster" and the hapless thief in "No Country for Old Men"). Instead, I'll heap praise on his co-star, Javier Bardem, for giving us the most memorable screen villain since Hannibal Lecter. Complete with his Freddie Jones hairdo, his cold indifference is a sad reminder of the film's constant refrain: 'You can't stop what's coming.'

Who will win: The performances in "No Country" were a big part of the reason that movie got stuck in my head for so long. My guess is, Academy voters will feel the same way and award Bardem (the film's sole acting nominee) accordingly. However, don't be surprised if Casey Affleck steals top prize as the reward for his revelatory Robert Ford, and his work in big brother Ben's "Gone Baby Gone."

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Cate Blanchett in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age," Julie Christie in "Away from Her," Marion Cotillard in "La Vie en Rose," Laura Linney in "The Savages," Ellen Page in "Juno"

Who should win: Although the film itself was a bit of a snore, Cate Blanchett shows why she's the female Johnny Depp; donning a fresh mask with each new role she takes (check out her brief cameo in the new Indy Jones trailer to see what I mean). But Julie Christie's Alzheimer-stricken Fiona in "Away from Her" has lingered in my mind since I first saw her at the 2006 Toronto Film Festival. It's at once tragic, haunting and lovely, balanced beautifully by Gordon Pinset's (who plays her husband) puzzled torment. Easily the year's best.

Who will win: She's already walked away with a handful of prizes, so I don't see this going to anyone but Ms. Christie.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

The nominees are: George Clooney in "Michael Clayton," Daniel Day-Lewis in "There Will Be Blood," Johnny Depp in "Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street," Tommy Lee Jones in "In the Valley of Elah," Viggo Mortensen in "Eastern Promises"

Who should win: So a few years back when I was sandwiched between two television cameras at a packed-to-the-gills press conference for "The Corpse Bride," I got to listen in as Johnny Depp and director Tim Burton discussed the early goings-on on their next collaboration: the musical "Sweeny Todd." Would Johnny be able to carry a note? Could audiences stomach their matinee idol splashed in blood? The answer was a resounding yes, of course. Johnny's Sweeny is delightfully bad and his incarnation of the stage role was the most sinfully sweet piece of Hollywood candy I dined on all year long. He gets the edge over George Clooney's best performance to date - as the conflicted Michael Clayton - because he's due.

Who will win: Daniel Day Lewis' towering Daniel Plainview really cements Paul Thomas Anderson's sprawling tale of religion and greed in turn of the century America. But I'm sticking with Depp because Day-Lewis takes eons between roles, while audiences can always rely on Johnny to don two or three different acting hats in any given year.

Best Director

The nominees are: "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" by Julian Schnabel, "Juno" by Jason Reitman, "Michael Clayton" by Tony Gilroy, "No Country for Old Men" by Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "There Will Be Blood" by Paul Thomas Anderson

Who should win: I absolutely loved how Tony Gilroy paced "Michael Clayton." Scrapping a Grisham-like narrative style, he turns what on its face seems like a straight legal thriller into a stirring ethical debate. His only fault is, he's running against the Coen brothers' masterful "No Country for Old Men."

Who will win: The Coen brothers.

Best Picture

The nominees are: "Atonement," "Juno," "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men," "There Will Be Blood"

Who should win: For once, possible spoilers aren't making me queasy. While "No Country for Old Men" has taken home virtually all of the critics' prizes, feel-good "Juno" and straight-laced "Michael Clayton" could steal the show. And if that happens, I won't be mad. But just like "The Departed" and "Brokeback Mountain" before it, "No Country for Old Men" is the film I will still be watching and rewatching 10 years from now.

Who will win: Thankfully, since the Golden Globes are no longer a harbinger for the Oscars, "No Country for Old Men."

The Academy Awards air this Sunday on CTV.


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