Is Slumdog Millionaire going to be the new Marisa Tomei?

Should Mickey Rourke vs. Sean Penn just be settled on a wrestling mat?

Wondering why Kate Winslet only takes her clothes off in movies you don't want to see?

Questions -- two of them anyway -- pertinent to Sunday's 81st Academy Awards and, more importantly, to your office Oscar pool. That's because, unless you work weekends, today's likely the deadline to get your picks in. But with so many movies you and nobody else you know has seen, what's a casual film-goer to do? Before you put your pen down, here are a few last-minute tips to help you make your final selections.

The buzz is almost always right: Despite the occasional upset -- and the Hollywood media machine that makes it seem like there's suspense, not snoring, at every turn -- the majority of Oscar front-runners will emerge victorious. That's welcome news for Slumdog Millionaire, the far-and-away favourite for best picture, backlash or no backlash. While the acting categories can surprise, the top Oscar is almost never a shock. Case in point: while The Pianist startled onlookers when actor Adrien Brody bested Jack Nicholson (About Schmidt) and exiled director Roman Polanski topped Martin Scorsese (Gangs of New York), the Holocaust drama still couldn't wrest the best picture prize from . That said however ...

... Once or twice the buzz is wrong: And so to win your pool, you have to choose which potential upset to gamble on. Last year, most prognosticators expected living legend Julie Christie to be recognized as best actress for Away from Her. Instead, the honour went to France's Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose), who appeared as stunned as everyone else. This year's most-contested battles -- and the ones where an upset could occur -- are Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona) vs. Viola Davis (Doubt) for best supporting actress, and Rourke vs. Penn for best actor. And while Dustin Lance Black will likely win for Milk's best original screenplay, WALL-E's Andrew Stanton could prove a spoiler.

The BAFTAs may be the new SAGS: One of the time-tested ways to know who's going to step up to the podium at the Kodak Theater is to pay attention to who's been taking home hardware throughout the awards season. Academy voters are as lazy as anyone else and vote with the prevailing cultural winds (i.e.: they watch TV). While the Screen Actors Guild awards has been a reliable indicator of who has the support of their peers, last year the British awards proved more prescient when they picked Cotillard, not SAG winner Christie; this year, the Brits honoured Rourke, not Penn. Could history repeat itself Sunday?

The best supporting actor Oscar favours lifetime achievement: Thus why Martin Landau (Ed Wood) beat Samuel L. Jackson (Pulp Fiction) and why Tommy Lee Jones (The Fugitive) bested Ralph Fiennes (Schindler's List). By this logic, Heath Ledger is assured a posthumous Oscar for his role as the Joker in The Dark Knight. Consider it also the Academy's olive branch to fanboys -- and the masses in general -- still miffed the Batman sequel was snubbed in the best picture and best director categories.

The best supporting actress Oscar favours ingenues: Thus why Tomei won for My Cousin Vinny and Mira Sorvino for Mighty Aphrodite. Even Lauren Bacall (The Mirror Has Two Faces) couldn't defeat The English Patient's Juliette Binoche. Granted, occasionally there's an exception: while Kate Hudson was expected to win for Almost Famous, she ended up losing to Pollock's Marcia Gay Harden.

Show-offs win: As satirically pointed out in Tropic Thunder, the Oscar typically goes to whichever actor has played the most impaired, besieged, tormented, tic-riddled character. But without a Forrest Gump or Rain Man among this year's candidates -- sorry, but Brad Pitt's backward-aging Benjamin Button was too passive to register -- who's the front runner? Right now it's a dead heat between Penn, for his uncharacteristically un-masculine performance as slain gay-rights activist Harvey Milk in Milk, and comeback king Rourke.

There is a place for historical dramas and blockbusters at this year's Oscars: And that place is in the technical arena. So look for films not nominated anywhere else -- The Duchess for costume and either The Dark Knight or Wall-E for sound -- to make their mark in the backbenches.

Fade in on the consolation prize: Black will win for original screenplay for Milk so that, just in case Penn loses, the film isn't completely snubbed. For best adapted screenplay, the momentum belongs to Slumdog Millionaire.

"Deserve's got nothing to do with it": Just remember Clint Eastwood's words from Unforgiven before you settle on any nominee. Was Roberto Benigni in Life Is Beautiful really better than Edward Norton in American History X? Was Shakespeare in Love superior to Saving Private Ryan? Was Gwyneth Paltrow in Shakespeare in Love better than Cate Blanchett in Elizabeth? Oscars are awarded according to a formula of luck, politics, buzz and sentimentality.

Remember who votes for these things: The largest voting block in the Academy -- which totals 5,800 members -- are actors, meaning you always have to compensate for ego, neurosis and pettiness. And while it's true there is still more grey hair -- or grey toupees -- in the crowd, the Academy is growing younger, a trend that's beginning to be reflected in its voting habits. How else to explain Three 6 Mafia's It's Hard Out For Here for a Pimp winning for best original song over Dolly Parton's Traveling' Thru from Transamerica? Surely, if it's not as hard for a pimp in there, there's also room for a Slumdog Millionaire.