Since the Oscars are rapidly approaching -- like as in Sunday -- now seems like a good time to throw out some fearless predictions. If you haven't seen all the movies, then you can bookmark this page, scamper over to your nearest AMC -- like the one at Toronto Life Square -- and watch the five Best Picture nominees back-to-back.
But if being stuck in a movie theatre, gorging on popcorn for 12 hours makes your skin crawl, or if you're merely reading this to gain the edge over dopey co-workers in an office pool, then sit back and place your bets.
Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
NOMINEES
- Amy Adams (Doubt)
- Penélope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona)
- Viola Davis (Doubt)
- Taraji P. Henson (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
- Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler)
NEIL
There are some strong contenders this year, but no actress demands your attention quite like Penélope Cruz. Though her screen time is limited, her performance is easily the highlight of Woody Allen's romantic comedy.
And since the Academy snubbed her work in "Volver," I figure she's due.
Prediction: Penélope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona)
MARK
Woody Allen enjoyed a late-career resurgence with "Match-Point," but follow-ups like "Scoop" and "Cassandra's Dream" have been a bit uneven. "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" is a nice return to form and Penélope Cruz is a great romantic foil in this light comedy. Still, I'm a sucker for the underdog and Marisa Tomei's hard-luck stripper character was just as interesting to me as Mickey Rourke's down-and-out wrestler. Since her 'disputed' win for "My Cousin Vinny" in 1991, Tomei has had a run of bad roles. After last year's dynamite "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead" and now "The Wrestler," it would be nice to see her win her second statuette and step back into the spotlight.
Prediction: Though I want Tomei or Taraji Henson to win this one, if you're betting, then take the safe odds and go with Cruz. Giving the award to her makes up for the "Volver" snub and allows the Academy to tip its hat to Allen.
Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
NOMINEES
- Josh Brolin (Milk)
- Robert Downey Jr. (Tropic Thunder)
- Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight)
- Philip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt)
- Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road)
NEIL
As I mentioned in my blog, I don't feel Heath Ledger deserves to win tonight.
In fact, the other nominees' performances are all better than Ledger's turn as The Joker. However, they made the tactical error of staying alive this past year.
This should learn 'em.
Prediction: Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight). Though I'd like to see Josh Brolin walk away with the award.
MARK
I guess I'm in the minority (no wait, majority -- sorry Neil, this is a slam dunk) in thinking that Ledger completely reinvented the Joker. By ditching Nicholson's ham-job, he turned the character into the maniacal sociopath comic geeks like me have been dying to see since reading Alan Moore's "Killing Joke" and Frank Miller's "Dark Knight Returns." So this category is a no-brainer.
I will add, though, that if anyone should be nominated from "Tropic Thunder," it should be Tom Cruise. He has less than 10 minutes of screen time, but however long it ended up being, his Les Grossman was the funniest bit of celluloid in 2008.
Note: Neil's got his heart in the right place about Brolin. In a career that's eerily similar to Mickey Rourke's, last year's "W" and "Milk" were proof that earlier stints with the Coen Brothers ("No Country for Old Men") and Ridley Scott ("American Gangster") were no fluke.
Prediction: Cue hankie: Heath Ledger
Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
NOMINEES
- Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married)
- Angelina Jolie (Changeling)
- Melissa Leo (Frozen River)
- Meryl Streep (Doubt)
- Kate Winslet (The Reader)
NEIL
There were some great bits of acting from the ladies this year, but you have to get behind the six-time nominee, Winslet. Her performance is as powerful as "The Reader" is long, overblown and boring.
Prediction: Kate Winslet (The Reader)
MARK
If you had told me back in August that Anne Hathaway -- she of the recent "Bride Wars" stinker -- would turn in the year's best performance of anyone -- male or female -- I would have said you're crazy. But as a recovering drug addict in Jonathan Demme's family drama, "Rachel Getting Married," she shatters any preconceived notions of what she can do as an actress.
Prediction: As good as Hathaway is, it's hard to ignore the fact that with six nominations under her belt, Winslet might have the edge. Personally, I think she should have been nominated for "Revolutionary Road," but if you've got money riding on this one, better to check the Winslet box.
Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
NOMINEES
- Richard Jenkins (The Visitor)
- Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon)
- Sean Penn (Milk)
- Brad Pitt (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
- Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)
NEIL
With the exception of the Screen Actors Guild Award, Mickey Rourke has snagged all the major trophies going into the Oscars. He deserves it -- his portrayal of down-and-out Randy 'The Ram' Robinson is as stunning as the hype would suggest.
However, you can't help but feel for Frank Langella. His magnificent performance in "Frost/Nixon" is destined to be overlooked by the Academy. Any other year and he would have been a shoo-in.
As much as I want to see either of these actors walk away with the little golden statue, I'll be happy just as long as Brad Pitt doesn't win.
Prediction: Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)
MARK
Ever since seeing Mickey Rourke in Francis Coppola's "Rumble Fish" as a 10-year-old, I have always looked forward to seeing his work. And while I had to experience most of his great films -- "Johnny Handsome," "Year of the Dragon," "Angel Heart" -- on VHS in the early '90s, before he was sentenced to a decade of straight-to-DVD purgatory, I still got a kick when he popped up in supporting roles in films like "Man on Fire" and, my favourite, "Once Upon a Time in Mexico."
He's already won just about every acting award out there, and Hollywood loves a comeback story, so even though Pitt's Benjamin was a real treat (sorry Neil, you're on your own on that one), I can't wait to see Rourke cemented back to leading man status.
One question though, how did Clint Eastwood's grizzled army vet from "Gran Torino" get overlooked here?
Prediction: Mickey Rourke
Achievement in Directing
NOMINEES
- Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)
- Stephen Daldry (The Reader)
- David Fincher (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
- Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon)
- Gus Van Sant (Milk)
NEIL
When you take a look at the nominees, they each set out to capture the emotion and culture of a snapshot in time.
Stephen Daldry focuses on post Second World War Germany, where anger and frustration still lingers following the Holocaust.
David Fincher paints a picture of sleepy New Orleans, as well as a few other locations, in the early to mid-1900s.
Ron Howard switches gears and looks at a country robbed of justice following the Watergate scandal.
Gus Van Sant, tackles social revolution in 1970s San Francisco.
While each of these director's deserve mention for their work, no one captures the humanity and life of their setting quite like Danny Boyle's look at the slums of Bombay (Mumbai).
It's this keen eye that will earn him his first Oscar for Best Director.
Prediction: Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)
MARK
First off, let me say: I'm a huge Fincher guy. If I have one problem with him, it's that, with the exception of the time between "Zodiac" and his superb "Benjamin Button," he usually waits five years between directorial efforts. Visually and technically, Fincher has this bunch beat, but Danny Boyle's charming love story has heart behind it and this year, that's hard to top.
Prediction: Hopefully, Fincher stops releasing movies in dead months (both "Panic Room" and "Zodiac" were released in March), so he can get another shot at this sometime soon. In the meantime, my bet's on Danny Boyle for "Slumdog Millionaire."
Best Motion Picture of the Year
NOMINEES
- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Frost/Nixon
- Milk
- The Reader
- Slumdog Millionaire
NEIL
To me, this is only a two-film race between "Slumdog Millionaire" and "Frost/Nixon." Everything else can wait patiently for table scraps.
The momentum is certainly behind Danny Boyle's tale of a poor Mumbai teen who lands a spot on "Who Wants to be a Millionaire." However, while it has all the qualities of a Best Picture winner, it's missing one key ingredient -- Hollywood didn't make it.
After all, what are the Oscars but an annual, three-hour ego stroke for La-La Land?
"Frost/Nixon" certainly has a more American slant to it, but it isn't the type of epic film the Academy usually goes for.
I'm going to cross my fingers and pray that one of these two flicks grabs the big one, but knowing the Academy, they'll probably pick "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" -- easily the worst film of the bunch.
Prediction: "Slumdog Millionaire"
MARK
Was I the only one scratching my head on this one? "The Dark Knight" comes along, becomes the second-highest grossing film of all time, is roundly declared the best sequel since "The Godfather II" and gets stiffed. Clint Eastwood surprises everyone with his emotional late-season entry, "Gran Torino," and comes up nada. The documentary-style "Rachel Getting Married" absolutely glues me to my seat and proves that Anne Hathaway can do more than just popcorn fluff and scrounges up one nomination.
I could go on, but suffice it to say there is one (cough, "The Reader") film that flat out shouldn't be on here and a few others ("Rachel Getting Married," "Revolutionary Road," "The Wrestler") that are arguably better than either "Milk" or "Frost/Nixon."
But no more yapping about what deserved to be nominated, if you've read this far, you want to know who's going to win.
When I was covering TIFF last September, "Slumdog" was the buzz word on everyone's lips and every bit of hype is worth it. It is a big sweeping romance that tugs the heart strings and makes you laugh. When you're not hoping to see things getting blown up, this is the real reason people should go to movies. It reminds us of common values we all share, no matter where we live.
Prediction: This is one of those years where I can safely say there are two nominees that I loved getting lost in for two-plus hours. So either "Slumdog Millionaire" or "Benjamin Button" would be fine with me. But if you're betting, or if you haven't seen any of the nominees and are looking to catch at least one sure-thing before the big event, go "Slumdog."
You won't be disappointed.
