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This year's fall music lineup reminds us of Donald Rumsfeld.
Well, actually it reminds us of something Rummy said: "There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know."
Sure, he was talking about WMDs in Iraq. But it's just as true of the music industry in 2008. There are releases that we know about. There are ones that we know we don't know about for sure. And there are those releases that are going to ambush us one day as the music industry continues to abandon the conventional rules of engagement in the hopes that sneak attacks will thwart piracy.
Anyway, here's what we know about this fall's new albums. But in the end, who really knows, you know?
KNOWN KNOWNS
Brian Wilson: That Lucky Old Sun
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The eternal Beach Boy reteams with SMiLE collaborator Van Dyke Parks for a lush love letter to life in Southern California. Um, just how is that different from every other album he's written? (Sept. 2)
Metallica/ Death Magnetic
Five years after St. Anger, Metallica and their therapists unleash some new kind of monster. Instead of the usual Tuesday release, this drops on a Friday. Why? Because they're rebels, man. (Sept. 12)
Kings of Leon: Only By the Night
These ramshackle southern rockers have always been bigger in England than in North America. Maybe this fourth studio disc will bring the Followill boys the attention they richly deserve. (Sept. 23)
Bob Dylan: Tell Tale Signs: The Bootleg Series, Vol. 8 -- Rare and Unreleased, 1989-2006
Even for Zimmy, it's a long-ass title. But it does tell you everything you need to know about the latest instalment in his Bootleg Series. Except this: It comes in one, two, and three-CD versions. (Oct. 7)
Oasis: Dig Out Your Soul
The Gallagher brothers stop fighting long enough to follow up their outstanding 2005 return to form Don't Believe the Truth. If the cuts we've heard are any sign, it could be another winner. (Oct. 7)
The Pretenders: Break Up the Concrete
It's been nearly six years since Chrissie Hynde made an album. That's way too long in our book. Here's hoping the rest of this one kicks as hard as the first single Boots of Chinese Plastic. (Oct. 7)
The Cure: 4:13 Dream
To advance his 13th CD, Robert Smith has issued singles on the 13th of May, June, July and August -- and will drop a new remix EP called Hypnogogic States in September. (Oct. 14)
Lucinda Williams: Little Honey
Lu's upbeat ninth CD features Elvis Costello, Matthew Sweet, Susanna Hoffs and Charlie Louvin. And a cover of AC/DC's It's a Long Way to the Top (If You Wanna Rock 'n' Roll). This sounds weird. (Oct. 14)
AC/DC: Black Ice
Speaking of the Aussie rockers, they've finally followed up their 2000 clunker Stiff Upper Lip. About time -- any longer and Angus would have needed a walker to go with those schoolboy togs. (Oct. 20)
Pink: Funhouse
Alecia Moore evolved from a fairly lightweight dance-popster to a Grammy-winning rocker over her first four albums. So we'll just have to wait and see where she'll head with album no. 5. (Oct. 28)
Fall Out Boy: Folie a Deux
Pete Wentz and his emo-punk pals release their fifth studio CD -- the followup to last year's massive Infinity on High -- on the same day as the U.S. presidential election. Coincidence? Yeah, probably. (Nov. 4)
The Killers: TBA
Brandon Flowers just told NME that music for the band's third CD -- possibly titled Day and Age -- was 97% done, but the lyrics were only 30% finished. Better pick up the pace, dude. (Nov. 25)
KNOWN UNKNOWNS
U2: No Line on the Horizon
At this point, neither the title nor the release date of the Irish rockers' 12th studio CD have been officially confirmed -- but nobody's denying anything either. (Nov. 18?)
Beyonce: TBA
It's just a rumour right now, but the title Virtuoso Intellect recently surfaced on a Wikipedia page sourced to a blog -- that cited Wikipedia as its source. So your guess is as good as ours. (Nov. 18)
Eminem: TBA
Another much-rumoured work. King Mathers is the title being bandied about the Internet -- and while it might be accurate, it actually sounds a bit too humble coming from Marshall. (TBA)
Dr. Dre: Detox
The former NWA member and superstar producer has been working on his third album almost as long as Axl Rose. The only diff: Dre's probably won't suck. (November-December)
Jay-Z: The Blueprint 3
Supposedly, Hova announced the title of his final major-label album onstage at a recent concert. That's as credible as any other source we could find. (TBA)
Slayer: TBA
The final studio album from Beelzebub's favourite romantic balladeers has been on the slate for a while. Guess even Satanic speed-metal rockers hate saying goodbye. (Oct. 7)
Black Eyed Peas: TBA
We haven't seen a release date. We haven't seen a title. We haven't seen any proof it exists. But it's been over three years since Monkey Business, so a new batch of annoying ringtones seems long overdue. (TBA)
Guns N' Roses: Chinese Democracy
We hear that it's possible Axl's decade-long folly could finally see the light of day this fall. But now that virtually all the tunes seem to have leaked, does anybody still care? (November)
BOX SETS
Neil Young: Archives Vol. 1: 1963-1972
No, really. After a couple of decades, a zillion blown deadlines and assorted format changes -- from CD to DVD to Blu-Ray and back -- Shakey's massive multi-disc box set is really, honestly, totally, for sure coming out this year. Unless it doesn't. (Nov. 18)
Hunter S. Thompson: The Gonzo Tapes: The Life and Work of Hunter S. Thompson
Five CDs of previously unreleased recordings by the man who once called the music biz "a cruel and shallow money trench ... where thieves and pimps run free, and good men die like dogs." Of course, as he added, "There's also a negative side." (Oct. 28)
Jesus & Mary Chain: The Power of Negative Thinking: B-Sides & Rarities
The Scottish noise-rockers were never more than cult heroes on this side of the Atlantic, but you can hear them in the distorted squeals of everyone from Dinosaur Jr. to My Bloody Valentine. This four-disc box celebrates their '80s and '90s heyday. (Sept 30)
Roy Orbison: The Soul of Rock and Roll
Nearly 20 years after his untimely death, the operatic rock 'n' roll pioneer gets his due with this four-disc retrospective that supposedly covers everything from his first recordings to his final live performance. (Sept. 30)
Nina Simone: To Be Free: The Nina Simone Story
There are already a couple of hundred anthologies and a few box sets devoted to the smoky singer-pianist who crossed jazz, soul, blues, pop and gospel. But since her music is still woefully unknown to most people, another four-disc set can't hurt. (Sept. 30)
Miles Davis: Kind of Blue: 50th Anniversary Collectors Edition
Based on a picture we saw at an online retailer, it seems that this deluxe reissue of the iconic jazz trumpeter's quietly revolutionary disc includes three CDs, a couple of books, pictures, reproduced handwritten notes, and a blue-vinyl LP. Cheapskates. (Sept. 30)
Genesis: 1970-1975
Over the past couple of years, the archivists at Rhino have reissued all the Phil Collins-led albums from Genesis, complete with bonus discs. Now, finally, for the final box in the trilogy, they deliver what fans really want: The Peter Gabriel albums.
(Oct. 28)
DVDS
Avril Lavigne: The Best Damn Tour: Live In Toronto (Sept. 9)
The Clash: Live at Shea Stadium (Oct. 7)
David Gilmour: Live in Gdansk (Sept. 23)
Various artists: High School Musical 2: 2-Disc Deluxe Dance Edition
(Sept. 23)
U2: Under a Blood Red Sky: Live at Red Rocks (Sept. 30)
CHRISTMAS
Sheryl Crow: Home for Christmas (Sept. 23)
Melissa Etheridge: A New Thought for Christmas (Sept. 30)
Anne Murray: Christmas Album (Sept. 30)
Faith Hill: Joy to the World (Sept. 30)
Various Artists: Christmas at the Movies (Sept. 30)
Mary Chapin Carpenter: Come Darkness, Come Light: Twelve Songs Of
Christmas (Sept. 30)
Neil Sedaka: The Miracle of Christmas (Oct. 7)
Mannheim Steamroller: Christmasville (Oct. 7)
George Strait: Classic Christmas (Oct. 7)
Aretha Franklin TBA (Oct. 14)
Al Jarreau: Christmas (Oct. 14)
Sixpence None the Richer: The Dawn of Grace (Oct. 14)
Sarah Brightman: A Christmas Symphony (Nov. 4)
OTHER NOTABLE ALBUMS
SEPT. 2
Rodney Crowell: Sex & Gasoline
New Kids on the Block: The Block
Young Jeezy: The Recession
SEPT. 9
Joan Baez: Day After Tomorrow
Natalie Cole: Still Unforgettable
Gym Class Heroes: The Quilt
Kardinal Offishall: Not 4 Sale
LL Cool J: Exit 13
Patty Loveless: Sleepless Nights
Joan Osborne: Little Wild One
Jessica Simpson: Do You Know?
Tricky: Knowle West Boy
SEPT. 12
Buckcherry: Black Butterfly
SEPT. 16
Lindsey Buckingham: Gift of Screws
George Clinton: George Clinton and His Gangsters of Love
Lemonheads: Varshons
Nelly: Brass Knuckles
Ne-Yo: Year of the Gentleman
The Streets: Everything Is Borrowed
SEPT. 23
Jackson Browne: Time the Conqueror
Cold War Kids: Loyalty to Loyalty
Common: Invincible Summer
Everlast: Love, War and The Ghost of Whitey Ford
Jenny Lewis: Acid Tongue
Plain White T's: Big Bad World
TV on the Radio: Dear Science
SEPT. 30
Ani DiFranco: Red Letter Year
Enigma: Seven Lives Many Faces
Ben Folds: Way to Normal
Grateful Dead: Rocking the Cradle: Egypt 1978
Jennifer Hudson: Jennifer Hudson
Mercury Rev: Snowflake Midnight
Tom Morello: The Nightwatchman: The Fabled City
Todd Rundgren: Arena
Santana: Multi-Dimensional Warrior
Pete Seeger: At 89
James Taylor: Covers
T.I.: Paper Trail
OCT. 7
Living Things: TBA
MSTRKRFT: TBA
OCT. 14
Kenny Chesney: Lucky Old Sun
Kaiser Chiefs: Off With Their Heads
Keane: Perfect Symmetry
Queen + Paul Rodgers: The Cosmos Rocks
T-Pain: Thr33 Ringz
Tom Jones: Gemini
OCT. 21
Akon: Acquitted
Dears: Missiles
Hank III: Damn Right, Rebel Proud
Labelle: Back to Now
Various Artists: High School Musical 3: Senior Year
Lee Ann Womack: Call Me Crazy
Toby Keith: TBA
OCT. 28
Grace Jones: Hurricane
John Legend: Evolver
Blue Rodeo: Live at Massey Hall
Bloc Party: Intimacy
The Flaming Lips: Christmas on Mars
Buffy Sainte-Marie: TBA
NOV. 4
Big Boi (OutKast): Hot Tub Tony ... Son of Chico Dusty
Dido: Safe Trip Home
Matthew Good: Live at Massey Hall
Hinder: Take It to the Limit
Brad Paisley: Play
NOV. 11
Brandy: Human
Missy Elliott: Block Party
R. Kelly: 12 Play: Fourth Quarter
Taylor Swift: Fearless
Tracy Chapman: Our Bright Future
NOV. 18
Kelly Clarkson: TBA
NOV. 25
Erykah Badu: New Amerykah Part 2 (Return of the Ankh)