March 31, 2006

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2006 Juno Award predictions
Nickelback, Kalan Porter and Michael Buble are the frontrunners for Sunday's awards
By MIKE BELL - Calgary Sun
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Nickelback are nominated for six Junos this year.

And the 2006 artist of the year Juno goes to -- Kalan Porter.

Ha! April Fool's Day eve!

Got you, didn't I?

Man, you should have seen your face. What were you thinking, by the way?

You honestly thought for even a second there was the chance the androgynous fiddling Tribble would win? It actually seemed plausible the dewey-eyed, Medicine Hat manchild Idol could take home the Juno for artist of the year?

Hahahahahahahaha ... oh, wait.

Joke's on me.

On all of us really, because while the likelihood is probably slim, yes, Porter is one of the five musicians vying for that particular second-class Grammy Award during the ceremonies Sunday night in Halifax.

And to underline the ludicrous nature of this year's event and the weak field of mainstream music this past year, please note fellow TV treasure Rex Goudie is one of the other category hopefuls, meaning there exists a very real possibility Canada's musical and artistic community could wake up Monday morning represented by a couple of kids who owe their fame to this country's text-messagers and televoters (i.e. teenagers and shut-ins).

Again, though, we should probably stress it's possible, but doubtful. The reason? Well, here we have a bit of a mea culpa, for when the nominations were first handed out I went on a tirade about Porter and Goudie's inclusions in the artist and album of the year categories while inferring they weren't sales-related awards.

In actuality, both categories get whittled down to the five finalists by units moved and then the industry voters weigh in on things by picking the winner. So despite the inference of artistic merit inherent in the category names, the railing was Emily Litella-ian or, at best, misplaced.

So why aren't I laughing?

Here's a look - a straight-faced look - at some of this year's most notable Juno categories and what should be the outcome, barring the fools having their day.

Artist of the year

The message should be sent loudly to the Idols with this award, which, once more, despite the word "artist," is missing such respected and truly artistic people and acts as Ron Sexsmith, Rufus Wainwright and Neil Young. Out of the remaining trio Diana Krall and Michael Buble are the frontrunners. And, when push comes to shove, expect the Junos to take their cue from the Grammys, and rectify the loss of baby-faced crooner Buble by feting him at home.

Should win: Michael Buble

Will win: Michael Buble

Album of the Year

What does it say about the state of things when I actually find myself rooting for Nickelback? (I died a little inside just writing that.) But really, who else is there? We've already excluded the assembly-line offerings from the pair of musical bit players, which leaves us with a seasonal album, a collection of light

swing interpretations and the dummed-down prairie rock of this generation's April Wine. From that list of three, at least Nickelback's All the Right Reasons is made up of newly written material -- I refuse to use the word "originals" -- which should send things in the Hanna boys' favour.

Should win: God help me, Nickelback

Will win: Nickelback

Single of the Year

Judging from the five nominees in this category, it really was a mildly interesting year for popular Canadian songs, wasn't it?

They're all mildly or vaguely memorable cuts, but nothing really leaps out now does it? It will probably come down to a dogfight between the more internationally accepted and popular Buble and Nickelback, with the latter's cliched re-write of every nostalgia-coloured hometown song ever written.

Should win: Bedouin Soundclash's When the Night Feels My Song.

Will win: Nickelback's Photograph

Group of the Year

Nickelback will continue their domination of the 2006 Junos by besting their hard-working farm team Theory Of A Deadman, and veterans and perennial faves Blue Rodeo, Barenaked Ladies and Our Lady Peace.

Talented, true, but in the musical cycle of things, the latter three have all had their time in the national spotlight and will soon be put out to pasture entirely to make room for the younger acts such as Nickelback, Sum 41, Simple Plan, etc.

Expect their names to next appear in the less prestigious categories and career achievement awards.

Should win: Blue Rodeo (for old time's sake)

Will win: Nickelback

Pop Album of the Year

Porter appears here, but his buddy has been bumped out by another Idol also-ran -- Theresa Sokyrka and her debut These Old Charms. The Geisha boy actually has a hope here, although the big names of Jann Arden and Buble are standing in the way (along with the lesser threat of Boom Desjardins -- sorry, unless you're Celine, it's still an anglocentric country we live in).

But, here, I think the voters just may pull a Grammy and thank the entire Idol family for selling some albums during this continuing industry slump.

Should win: Arden's Jann Arden

Will win: Porter's 219 Days

Rock Album of the Year

More residual Idol work makes its mark in this category, with contest drop-out Jacob Hoggard's band Hedley taking on Our Lady Peace, Theory Of A Deadman, Quebecer Jonas and his band, and Nickelback. Hedley's unexpected popularity aside, they don't really pose much of a threat to anyone, least of all the Juno juggernaut that is Nickelback.

Should win: Nickelback

Will win: Nickelback

New Artist of the Year

This one is perhaps the most interesting and most difficult to predict. The three that stand out as the frontrunners are: Martha Wainwright because of the quality of her debut, not to mention family legacy working in her favour; Daniel Powter who has already established himself globally; and Divine Brown who has enjoyed herself some mainstream success at home. The edge, by way of some crazy Dungeons and Dragons three-sided dice -- probably goes to Powter.

Should win: Martha Wainwright

Will win: Daniel Powter

New Group of the Year

Another toughie to nail down because of no glaring hands-down winner among the bunch, which includes Hedley, Boys Night Out, Pocket Dwellers, Silverstein and Bedouin Soundclash. Hedley might get the nod because of the unknown Idol factor, but it's difficult most voters would bestow upon Hoggard and Co. the implied longevity of the category compared with the one-time shot of the pop album award. Expect, then, Bedouin Soundclash to take it as a result of their multiple nominations and surging popularity.

Should win: Bedouin Soundclash

Will win: Bedouin Soundclash


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